Fermi, was average tuner income

[Dave Bunch]

>>150,000 pianos in Chicago. Estimate that
each piano gets tuned an average of 1 time a year.<<

Yeah, right.

Dave Bunch

----- Original Message ----- 
From: "jason kanter" <jkanter@rollingball.com>
To: <dporritt@mail.smu.edu>; "Pianotech" <pianotech@ptg.org>
Sent: Thursday, October 07, 2004 3:08 PM
Subject: Fermi, was average tuner income


> Many of you are probably familiar with Enrico Fermi's famous problem, "How
> many piano tuners are there in Chicago?" - asked of physics engineers.
> "Sometimes we must attempt to estimate important scientific and/or
> engineering values based on scanty or apparently non-existent information.
> Experimental science seeks its answers from Nature; but, before an
> experiment can be designed, some idea/estimate of the parameter space
> involved must already be in hand. We must make an initial guess. How do we
> proceed? We use what we already know, of course. Most people could do far
> more than they think if only they really knew how to use their heads. 
> Enrico
> Fermi, hailed by some as, "the last universal scientist," had a unique way
> of initiating his graduate students into this important discipline.
> see http://www.grc.nasa.gov/WWW/K-12/CoE/Fermi.mod_files/v3_document.htm
> and
> http://www.stthomas.edu/physics/Academics/111/Green%20Group%20Problems/Fermi
> %20Problems/Fermi%20Piano%20Key.gif
> for two versions of the Fermi problem and its solution. (the second link
> above uses Twin Cities instead of Chicago).
>
> In the various solutions to the problem, the engineers make the following
> reasonable assumptions: 3 million people, 4 people per family, 1 piano for
> every 5 families, therefore about 150,000 pianos in Chicago. Estimate that
> each piano gets tuned an average of 1 time a year.
> And they proceed to estimate how many tuners are required to service those
> pianos thus: 4 to 5 tunings a day, 5 days a week, 50 weeks a year, 
> therefore
> about
> 1000 to 1250 tunings a year per tuner ...
> therefore there are 120 to 150 tuners in Chicago.
>
> For our purposes in looking at average income, this tallies with Dave
> Porritt's rule of thumb that gross income is about 1,000 times your tuning
> fee.
>
> But do we actually average 1,000 to 1,250 tunings a year? I would have
> thought less.
>
> | |   | | |   | |   | | |   | |   | | |   | |   | | |   | |   | | |   | |
> | | |   | |
> Jason Kanter . piano tuning regulation repair
> jkanter@rollingball.com <mailto:jkanter@rollingball.com>  . cell 425 830
> 1561
> serving the eastside and the san juans
>
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: pianotech-bounces@ptg.org [mailto:pianotech-bounces@ptg.org]On
> Behalf Of David M. Porritt
> Sent: Thursday, October 07, 2004 11:41 AM
> To: pianotech@ptg.org
> Subject: RE: average tuner income
>
>
> Terry:
>
> This is a touchy subject on many levels.  I have always thought, however,
> that a good rule of thumb was 1,000 times your tuning rate as a gross
> income.  That's assuming that you have some skill, some business sense and
> this is not your first year doing it.
>
> dave
>
> __________________________________________
> David M. Porritt, RPT
> Meadows School of the Arts
> Southern Methodist University
> Dallas, TX 75275
> dporritt@mail.smu.edu
>
>
> ----- Original message ---------------------------------------->
> From: pianolover 88 <pianolover88@hotmail.com>
> To: <pianotech@ptg.org>
> Received: Wed, 06 Oct 2004 15:36:03 -0700
> Subject: average tuner income
>
>>I know it's hard to generalize, but I'm curious to know what other
> full-time
>>tuner/techs average income is per year. I will understand if not too many
>>want to divulge this info online. I'm just looking for a "ballpark", for 
>>LA
>>and other major cities or whereve. I read somehwere a while back in a PTJ
>>from about 3 years back, a little questionairre, where one of the 
>>questions
>>asked how much do you earn in a year. There were four multiple choice
>>answers listing  income ranges. On the high range was "$200,000 or more",
>>and next to it in (----) was: "average for tuners in Los Angeles". Not
> being
>>able to find that particular article, I wonder if that was accurate or 
>>just
>>a joke! That would basically translate to no less than $766.00 per day,
>>every day,  based on a 5 day week, or $639.00 every day, based on a six 
>>day
>>week. I've had days like that and sometimes even more, but not EVERY 
>>SINGLE
>>DAY! Of course when I think about it, that's really only 4-6 tuning per
> day,
>>with a few pitch raises, cleanings or extra stuff  added to the mix. For
> me,
>>single with no debt, (except my home mortgage) I guess I'm happy keeping 
>>my
>>work day as short as practicable. Some techs might work from 8am 'till
> dark,
>>but I sure as heck don't need to, and never will! I love what i do-and I
>>love ice cream-but i don't over do it. The sky's the limit if we really
> want
>>it bad enough.
>
>>Terry Peterson
>
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