I'm sure my ex-wife could tell you a few stories of the calls she could get if my old business phone had been my home phone. Like the business card that was found in the piano 30 years later, I put my stickers in all instrument that I service (almost all - the real junkers, I pass on). Being in St. Louis, I once got a call from Colorado on an instrument that I serviced. Seem the customer moved there and then sold the instrument.
It has been 17 years since I moved to where I am now and I'll bet whoever has my old phone number still gets calls reqesting service only to be advised that they have not reached me.
Ken Gerler
----- Original Message -----
From: David Renaud
To: pianotech at ptg.org
Sent: Monday, March 26, 2012 2:19 AM
Subject: Re: [pianotech] Surprising value of business cards
This is such an astounding coincidence. Hmm... Maybe its not?
Really though? What are the actual numerical chances?
Dale
Ok, cool. I could entertain that. A number for entertainment purposes.
To come up with a reasonable number I need to make some reasonable assumptions.
So assume the following to estimate the numerical chances.
That most people would call fir a tuning after 1 year, so I'll exclude the first year.
That most people call between the hours of 9am and 7pm, therefore to be
Fair and reasonable to the calculation, 10 possible hours per day that they could
Have chosen to call back.
What are the chances of them calling at that particular hour.
1 /29 years * 10 hrs per day* 365 days a year
= 1 in 105,850
Just over a one in one hundred thousand chance she would call that location at that particular hour.
But that is only the probability of her attempting to reach that number at that particular hour.
We Also need to calculate the probability of that couple having chosen to have kept the number, and having chosen not to move in 25 years, so as to keep that phone number working at that location for nearly 3 decades. So more reasonable assumptions for the purpose of creating a reasonable numerical probability. Assuming a 50/50 chance that they choose to assume the old phone number, And assuming a one in five chance they didn't move in nearly 30 years 5*2= a further factor of one In 10.
Also factor in the chances of this particular couple at this particular address with this same
Old phone number happening to own a piano. Being generous and conservative, piano ownership was once more common, and this is an older couple, let's say one in two.
Now we need to multiply the three sets of probabilities of the three conditions together,
Number of potential hours to call that number * probability they still having that number at that same location* probability of the new people at that location owning a piano.
So rounding some numbers down to be conservative about this
1/100,000 * 1/10 *1/2 = a one in two million chance of her calling that number at that particular hour, Still reaching that same house with that same number, and that house actually has a piano that needs tuning.
That is only the probability of her calling at that specific time and reaching someone still at that address, and that someone happens to be a piano owner.
Now we need to multiply that by the probability of them having called me for a tuning, not someone else, 1/20 , and my booking it at that particular hour. They had not tuned their piano in 10 years. The chances of them booking a tuning that particular hour of ten thousand available road hours in the last 10 years. Now we have 1/20(booked me) times 1/10,000 (booked that hour) , =one in 2million That I would be there, not someone else, at that particular hour over a 10 year period that the Piano needed tuning.
1/ 2million (chances of the call at that particular moment happening and still working)
Times 1/2million(chances of me being here at that particular time)
= one in 2 trillion chance of them calling at that particular hour after 30 years, and that particular number still being at that house, and that particular house happening to have a piano, and the house owner calling this particular tuner, and happening to book the tuning at that same particular hour. Any one of those variables not panning out correctly and my experiencing this strange phone call does not happen.
Ok, it's late, I'm tired, and I'm wasting time hypothesizing about the probability.
But the chances are so astounding, it is quite entertaining......
Cheers and loud annoying yelping sounds
Drjazz
Dave Renaud
A funny story with a valuable theme.
I'm tuning a piano at an elderly clients home, and the phone rings.
It's for you the lady says, it's for the piano tuner.
Who could it be? My wife does not have my schedule anymore. It must
Be an emergency and she went digging in the computer for it.
I take the phone and a lady at the other end would like to book a piano tuning.
I ask "Ah, are you a friend of client x",..no.
"A neighbor "...no
"Do you have my business phone number and web coordinates.."..no, isn't this the piano tuner.
"Yes, I am tuning mrs x, piano, but how did you get my clients number."
She replies, the number was in the piano, is this 1888 Lorraine Avn.
Why yes, that is where i am, but that is my clients house; I'm confused.
Well she says, your address and phone number is on a business card in the piano.
Ah, I ask, when is the last time you tuned the piano.......nearly 30 years ago.
My client, overhearing the growing confusion says, "ah, when we moved here 25 years ago,
The previous owner was a piano tuner and had passed away, we acquired his phone number."
What are the chance of her calling to book a tuning, 30 years later, at the very hour I arrive
At that house to tune a piano.
Moral of the story.......every business card you leave in a piano may be doing overtime for you
For decades to come.
30 years later.
What are the chances, eh.
Cheers
Dave Renaud
Sent from my iPad
On 2012-03-25, at 6:19 PM, Thos Carpenter <cathomas1003 at qwestoffice.net> wrote:
A FINE TECHNICIAN
Thos. Carpenter - Piano Technician
303.684.6766
www.AFINETECH.com
Begin forwarded message:
From: Thos Carpenter <cathomas1003 at qwestoffice.net>
Date: March 22, 2012 8:11:59 AM MDT
To: pianotech at ptg.org
Subject: Conover (Cable) butt
Dear List,
(what are the chances?) does anyone have a 1908 Conover (Cable) hammer butt. Specifically F#7 (in the event that I might find a matching hammer). This is an unique butt in that this particular action is "bridlestrapless". This is the only action I have seen that is such. As I say, this action does not have bridal straps and instead has an "L" shaped hook which protrudes out of the top of the jack which catches in a hole under the catcher dowel.
The story given is that - some thirty (or so) years ago a previous technician, of high regard, had taken the hammer and butt with him whom has since gone to greener pastures - the parts in question to be forever lost in the labyrinth of the fabled, ever evasive bottomless drawer of possibly someday usable salvaged piano parts.
thanks,
Tom
Berthoud, CO
A FINE TECHNICIAN
Thos. Carpenter - Piano Technician
303.684.6766
www.AFINETECH.com
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