One Piano Per....??

[Mark Schecter]

James,

Although the following link is not directly on your topic or the OP's, 
it might be interesting to you or other techs regarding the world piano 
market. It is the report of the U.S. International Trade Commission on 
Economic and Competitive Conditions Affecting the U.S Piano Industry. 
Lots of info on the numbers of pianos exported and imported from and to 
major manufacturing/consuming countries, with a focus on China, Japan, 
Korea, and Indonesia.

http://hotdocs.usitc.gov/docs/pubs/332/pub3196.pdf

It's a bit dated, 1999, but still relevant as to general trends.

-Mark

James H Frazee wrote:
> I am in the midst of preparing this very marketing analysis for a 
> presentation at our local (New York) chapter.  I spent my entire life to 
> date as a marketing professional for large firms like Dansk, Farberware, 
> Johnson & Johnson, Cartier and others so, as I entered the piano 
> technician field, the first thing I sought to do was marketing 
> feasability study for my area, basing it on secondary research available 
> from trusted sources.  What I was trying to determine, initially, was 
> the expected response rate to my advertising.  In other words, if I 
> spend X dollars in medium A, how many responses should I get.  This gets 
> into some high falutin' math and gyrations and is VERY specific to where 
> you live, census data, piano ownership data, demographic and 
> psychographic stratification and, and, and, most of all, a LOT of 
> assumptions.  In a nutshell, though, here's some of what I've found:
>  
> Incidence of piano ownership in the U.S. is approximately three (3) per 
> cent, as shown below:
>  
> *Sales of Acoustic Pianos in the U.S.* 	**
> *Unit Sales for Last 27 Years* 	Incidence of
> Yr. 	Grands 	%T 	Verticals 	%T 	Total 	Change 	Ownership
> 							
> 							
> 							
> 2004 	30.0 	35.3% 	55.0 	64.7% 	85.0 	0.0% 	
> 2003 	30.0 	35.3% 	55.0 	64.7% 	85.0 	1.1% 	
> 2002 	30.8 	36.6% 	53.3 	63.4% 	84.1 	6.5% 	
> 2001 	28.1 	35.6% 	50.9 	64.4% 	79.0 	-16.0% 	
> 2000 	33.4 	35.5% 	60.6 	64.5% 	94.0 	2.1% 	
> 1999 	32.1 	34.9% 	60.0 	65.1% 	92.1 	-8.0% 	
> 1998 	33.6 	33.6% 	66.5 	66.4% 	100.1 	12.2% 	
> 1997 	28.4 	31.8% 	60.8 	68.2% 	89.2 	12.2% 	
> 1996 	26.5 	33.3% 	53.0 	66.7% 	79.5 	-15.5% 	
> 1995 	28.0 	29.8% 	66.1 	70.2% 	94.1 	-0.7% 	
> 1994 	29.0 	30.6% 	65.8 	69.4% 	94.8 	-1.7% 	
> 1993 	27.6 	28.6% 	68.8 	71.4% 	96.4 	-6.3% 	
> 1992 	29.4 	28.6% 	73.5 	71.4% 	102.9 	-3.7% 	
> 1991 	27.8 	26.0% 	79.1 	74.0% 	106.9 	-4.5% 	
> 1990 	27.7 	24.8% 	84.2 	75.2% 	111.9 	-11.4% 	
> 1989 	28.6 	22.6% 	97.7 	77.4% 	126.3 	-10.8% 	
> 1988 	32.3 	22.8% 	109.3 	77.2% 	141.6 	-16.5% 	
> 1987 	38.5 	22.7% 	131.0 	77.3% 	169.5 	2.6% 	
> 1986 	33.4 	20.2% 	131.8 	79.8% 	165.2 	14.5% 	
> 1985 	27.6 	19.1% 	116.7 	80.9% 	144.3 	-14.4% 	
> 1984 	26.2 	15.5% 	142.3 	84.5% 	168.5 	-10.9% 	
> 1983 	20.3 	10.7% 	168.9 	89.3% 	189.2 	-3.0% 	
> 1982 	20.6 	10.6% 	174.5 	89.4% 	195.1 	-11.9% 	
> 1981 	19.9 	9.0% 	201.5 	91.0% 	221.4 	-3.2% 	
> 1980 	18.0 	7.9% 	210.7 	92.1% 	228.7 	-15.5% 	
> 1979 	19.0 	7.0% 	251.6 	93.0% 	270.6 	-2.4% 	
> 1978 	20.0 	7.2% 	257.2 	92.8% 	277.2 	N/A 	
> 							
> Totals 	746.8 		2945.8 		3692.6 		
> %T 	20.2% 		79.8% 				3.3%
> 							
> Incidence of Ownership based on U.S. Census data for 2003:  # U.S. 
> Households= 111,278,000
> 
>  
> Without getting too far into the analysis, from this data you must add 
> data you find or make assumptions and inferences/inductions as to 
> household types within your market area, zip code/family income and/or 
> composition.  I will say that, at this point, my results have been 
> slightly higher than a 3.3% response rate, (a rate which in any other 
> marketing campaign would be astronomically high).  This is because I 
> live in an affluent, densely populated area.  The point is, think it 
> through, how many people live where you work?  How many have pianos?  
> How many have pianos they care about?  How many have kids who are taking 
> lessons?  How many of the pianos sold above went to institutions - 35%, 
> more?  That cuts down, then, on the number of personal pianos in our 
> universe. 
>  
> Anyway, I hope this gets you thinking in the right direction.  When my 
> study is complete, I'd be happy to send a copy to anyone who's 
> interested, with the caveat that it applies (MOSTLY) to my marketing 
> area and, of course, my assumptions and intuitions. 
>  
>