Larry: OT Political -- PLEASE HIT DELETE KEY

Sarah Fox sarah@graphic-fusion.com
Sun, 31 Oct 2004 02:34:52 -0500


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Larry,

>>Sarah, there has been two stock market crashes. One was in the late =
1920s. I don't think you lost anything in that one. The other one was in =
the mid to late 1980s. Are you of the opinion there was a third one?=20

You've asked me this question twice now, so with apologies to the list, =
I will answer it.  Those who are not interested in the economy or the =
election, PLEASE delete this email.  Do not read!

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NUTRITION LABEL
Ingredients: sad story, economic stuff(ing), sour grapes, 1 small =
graphic file, natural humor and seasonings
Calories: approx 30 kB/serving
Fat: 10%
BS: 12%
OT: 34% of RDA

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So Larry, I was apparently mistaken.  Here's a chart of what has =
happened in the Nasdaq over the past 5 years:



What we see here is apparently an exceptional period of sustained, =
rapid, negative growth, throughout which investors retained over 20% of =
their initial net worth, resulting in a market of unprecedented =
opportunity.

(Don't y'all yell "BULLSHIT" at the same time, OK?)

All BS aside, the market went from a high of about 5000 to a low of =
about 1100, representing a 78% value loss over 30 months.  By =
comparison, the stock market crash of 1929-1932 took the S&P 500 from =
about 300 to about 50, representing an 83% loss over almost exactly the =
same time period. =20

It's hard to know how to compare apples with apples.  It's true that the =
S&P 500 declined to only about half its value in the crash of 2000-2002, =
but of course the 1929 S&P 500 and the 2000 S&P 500 were not the same =
basket, and in modern times, worthless stocks are retired out of these =
indices, replaced by other stocks (so the crash doesn't appear quite as =
bad as it otherwise would).  Also, while the S&P 500 was probably the =
best index for the 1920's reflecting the average investor's portfolio, =
the modern investor's portfolio is better reflected somewhere between =
the Nasdaq composite index and the S&P 500.  The average investor lost =
approximately 2/3 of his/her portfolio value.  So yes, the 1929-1932 =
crash was somewhat worse (by maybe 15% loss), and numerous other =
contributing factors resulted in a much worse depression =
(Republicanspeak =3D "recession").  However, the crash of 2000-2002 left =
us hurting pretty badly, with people's retirement savings virtually =
wiped out.

Of course this is not really a "depression," because there is not the =
same extent of "job loss" as currently defined.  That's because in the =
1930's, when you collected bottles for change to buy a loaf of bread, =
you weren't counted as an entrepreneur.  Back then, a job meant 9 to 5 =
(or later), and it brought in real money.  People like myself wouldn't =
be counted as "employed."  However, modern redefinition has taken care =
of that problem, and people like myself are now success stories that the =
incumbent president can boast about:

You see, I spent the better part of my life preparing myself for a =
career in neurobiological research, receiving my Ph.D. during the early =
1990's, in the decade Prez Bush Sr. declared the "Decade of the Brain," =
meaning that neurobiological research was considered extremely high =
priority.  So of course Mr. Bush slashed funding, and many of us had to =
close down our labs, for lack of ability to put food on the table.  =
(Scientists have to eat too, contrary to popular belief.)  So I went =
into the private sector as an "entrepreneur."  After three failed =
ventures, I'm now on the fourth.  I've "retrained" myself with the =
latest in digital imaging technology, and I'm trying to make a living as =
a photographer.  After a couple of weeks in business, I've brought in =
$50 from one sale.  Extrapolating out, that would give me an income of =
$2400 over the next year, which would not offset my initial investment.  =
(I anticipate business will pick up, but I don't exactly expect to =
strike it rich.)  So I am (self) employed now, in the great American =
entrepreneurial spirit of private enterprise, having left the bad ol' =
big-government-funded world of the academic sector.  Yes, I am one of =
Mr. Bush's millions of success stories.  (Someone yell "BULLSHIT," OK?)

Looking at the bigger picture, if you were to compare the number of =
fully employed individuals nowadays (i.e. working full time at their =
pre-"recession" pay rate or better, with the same benefits, and in the =
same field) with the number of fully employed individuals in the early =
1930's, you might see a very different picture and might be inclined to =
use the "D" word to describe our current situation -- a situation in =
which Ph.D. scientists are working as photographers, substitute =
teachers, exterminators, and painters, if they're working at all (to =
draw from the examples of some of my colleagues).  Granted, it's nothing =
like the 1930's, but neither is it anything like what Bush portrays.

Do I blame this mess on the Bush administration?  Only somewhat.  I =
really put the blame on rampant corporate fraud and corruption.  =
Participating in that fraud and corruption were Bush and Cheney, but =
they were only the tip of the iceberg.  Martha Stewart was a but a =
snowflake in this whole mess, but she got a lot more jail time than =
either Bush or Cheney.  To my knowledge, neither Kerry nor Edwards =
cheated a single investor.

Anyway, Larry, that's my honest assessment of what has happened.  Don't =
you dare tell me it didn't happen; I've lived it, toots!

Having said all that, this horrible economy is honestly the least of my =
concerns.  I've always voted for social policy, energy policy, and =
foreign policy.  This year, the preservation of our Constitution is my =
number one concern as a voter, and even gay/les/bi/transgender (GLBT) =
rights take a back seat.  (This comes from a former GLBT activist, =
folks!)

Peace,
Sarah

PS  Only three days left in the Graphic Fusion Eight Inch sale.  All =
eight inch prints available at half price to those who have posted on =
this list over the past year or two.  Sale ends on election night.  =
(Come'on all you Republicans, give "W" one more success story to boast =
about!)  www.graphic-fusion.com

PPS Apologies, again, to the list, and especially to those outside the =
US.  However, remember that we are ALL affected by the outcome of this =
election in the most powerful, arrogant, and imperialistic country in =
the world.  What happens on Tuesday should interest you.  I won't say =
another word, though, unless one of you persistently goads me for a =
response, like Larry did.
 
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