----- Original Message ----- From: "Julio Barea" <pianoelf@lycos.com> To: "Pianotech" <pianotech@ptg.org> Sent: Saturday, March 22, 2003 7:13 AM Subject: Longterm future of piano business > I am curious about others opinions on the long term future of the piano business. Piano dealers are going under right and left. Used pianos are at historic lows and even then do not sell. There will always be tuning and rebuilding business since there are still millions of pianos out there. But do you feel about the long term growth of our field. > ----------- I've written about this issue as well. See my Journal article of several years back titled, "If it Ain't Broke--Break It." Essentially, what we have is a problem of supply and demand. There is plenty of supply but a shrinking demand for that supply. I can't speak for the European market--or for the African, Asian, Australian, South American or Antarctica markets for that matter--but the U.S. market is becoming smaller every year. There are some bumps up from time to time but overall it is declining. There are many reasons for this. Two, I think, bear noting. First, as a nation we no longer consider music or the visual arts to be a basic component in the education of our children. So-called "team sports" are important enough to pour huge sums of money into, but when was the last time you heard of any school district considering the construction of a music and fine arts facility? How many elementary schools have even minimally adequate facilities for music education? Secondly, as an industry we have written off what is potentially our largest market segment--the current piano owner. This is the result of the almost total stagnation of the piano industry. It's as if the whole automobile industry had followed the example of the U.S. automakers from the 1950s through, roughly, the 1980s. With huge amounts of money being poured into marketing and advertising and very little going into R&D and engineering the entire industry was stagnating. Strong competition from Japan and Europe finally jolted the industry into action with the result that once again the U.S. automakers are turning out interesting and competitive products. Even if most of them are gargantuan tanks they are still products people want to buy--enough so that they are willing to trade in their only slightly used two or three year old models for something newer and more exciting.. Now consider that the fundamental design of the piano has not changed appreciably in something like 125 to 150 years. What incentive does the current piano owner have to trade in his/her old Whatever piano for something new? It is unlikely that the new piano will sound or play any better. In fact, it is more likely that the new piano won't sound as good! For some companies this has become a major problem. As far back as the 1970s some of Steinway's major competition was coming from the rebuilders of Steinway pianos. This situation does not have to continue. There is still enough room in the fundamental design of the piano to develop instruments that offer superior performance to those designed 125 years ago. And, perhaps naively, I believe there will be a marked for these instruments among the current world of piano owners. Build a better product and they will come. As for the piano tuning and rebuilding industries, yes, I agree that they will probably continue on for some time. But, lest we become overly complacent, let us consider where our parts and materials come from for those wonderful rebuildings we want to do. We are already having some difficulty obtaining some of the parts and materials we need to rebuild pianos the way we would like. Certain felts are becoming difficult to obtain. Hammers with any sense of resiliency are almost a thing of the past. Large screws are becoming harder to find. We depend on a thriving piano manufacturing business to keep these and other materials coming. What happens when there is no longer enough demand to keep the tuning pin manufacturers going? The action makers? The felters? I see the future of the industry as potentially viable but possibly shakey. Much depends on us--:"I have seen the enemy and he is us...." Del
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