This is a multi-part message in MIME format. ---------------------- multipart/alternative attachment As the webpage was to do with calculating sizes in the universe it would = be interesting to know just how many tuners there are to see how good or = bad the math's is in the prediction dept of astronomy . Brian ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Billbrpt@AOL.COM=20 To: pianotech@ptg.org=20 Sent: 10 January, 2002 05:17 PM Subject: Re: How many piano tuners are there in Chicago? In a message dated 1/10/02 8:48:30 AM Central Standard Time, = jgunderson@monmouth.com (John Gunderson) writes:=20 Just in case you were wondering.=20 Here is what I read on this website:=20 <<As a lecturer, Enrico Fermi used to challenge his classes with = problems that, at first glance, seemed impossible. One such problem was = that of estimating the number of piano tuners in Chicago given only the = population of the city. When the class returned a blank stare at their = esteemed professor, he would proceed along these lines:=20 From the almanac, we know that Chicago has a population of about 3 = million people.=20 Now, assume that an average family contains four members so that the = number of families in Chicago must be about 750,000.=20 If one in five families owns a piano, there will be 150,000 pianos in = Chicago.=20 If the average piano tuner=20 serviced four pianos every day of the week for five days=20 rested on weekends, and=20 had a two week vacation during the summer,=20 then in one year (52 weeks) he would service 1,500 pianos. 150,000/(4 = x 5 x 50) =3D 150, so that there must be about 150 piano tuners in = Chicago.=20 This method does not guarantee correct results; but it does establish = a first estimate which might be off by no more than a factor of 2 or = 3--certainly well within a factor of, say, 10. >>=20 There seems to be a little problem with the math, here (duh). 4 x 5 x = 50 =3D 1000, not 150, for starters. Next, this idea that a piano = "tuner" would "tune" 4 pianos a day, 5 days a week would also amount to = 1,000 pianos, not 1,500. But this supposition would amount to a rarity, = not what an *average* piano technician would do.=20 First of all, pianos need more than *just tuning*, as I'm sure we can = all confirm. I'd really question such a claim, that *anyone* really, = only tuned 1,000 pianos every year, year after year. That would = inevitably amount to a *dis* service, not a good and honest way to make = a living. Please don't ask me to believe that there 150 of these guys = running that kind of racket in Chicago!=20 My off the cuff guess is there would be about 50 piano technicians in = Chicago. I'm not sure in this exercise if the 3 million figure is just = Chicago or the whole metro area that includes all the suburbs or not. = The PTG directory lists a total of 110 for both the Chicago and Waukegan = (a north suburb of Chicago) Chapters. Of course there may be many = people who are not PTG members.=20 But still, that list includes people like Jack Greenfield and Virgil = Smith whom I'm quite certain don't tune 20 pianos a week, 1,000 a year. = Then, there are people like Alan Vincent who run a company and do belly = work and hardly ever tune and people like Kurt Saphir who probably = *sells* 1,000 pianos a year and also rarely do any tuning.=20 Wouldn't an easier and more accurate way of determining this number be = to look in the phone book and count the names, then add maybe 10% for = those who don't list themselves?=20 Bill Bremmer RPT=20 Madison, Wisconsin=20 Click here: -=3Dw w w . b i l l b r e m m e r . c o m =3D-=20 ---------------------- multipart/alternative attachment An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: https://www.moypiano.com/ptg/pianotech.php/attachments/7d/32/d6/f3/attachment.htm ---------------------- multipart/alternative attachment--
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